Hi Jim,

Maybe this has been answered on your website and I either missed it or didn’t understand it.

What needs to change in order to drive the dollar lower? We seem to have all of the ingredients in place for a weaker dollar yet that doesn’t seem to matter. When will it matter? When do the buyers of the dollar become sellers?

Again thanks for all you do. By the way I am 63 and also believe in your "burnout" before "rust-out" theory.

Regards,
CIGA Ron

Dear Ron,

I had lunch this afternoon in Joberg with a group of very well known personalities in African Mining. Rob S, a member of this assemblage, told a story that I believe prophetically answers your question.

The monetary parable was about a special variety of monitor lizard in Australia that lives off road kill (Hedge Funds, I imagine). The species, like the Komodo Dragon, kills by infecting its victim with a vicious saliva.

Fortunately for our Australian friends this lizard becomes terrified quite easily and runs for the nearest high point, usually a bush or tree, when confronted with terror like a human being or a bad dream.

The knee jerk reaction to fears of an imploding world economy, the fear that Obama produced calling for Tarp funds now indicated that crisis is here, up the tree goes the down-under lizard. The Tree is the dollar and long bonds. This awful, stinking, road kill eating, vile lizard is what is left of the hedge fund business after Madoff.

Your question is when does it end.

The answer is that Fiscal Stimulation will produce a degree of economic results that draws out a measure of inflation from Monetary Stimulation relative to the intensity of the new Administration’s degree of concern. Acting as president and calling for legislative action NOW to release TARP funds before you are the president is a demonstration not only of concern but total panic.

As inflation starts to work its way out of absolute monetary madness, .72 on the USDX comes directly into the market’s cross hairs. Three back to back closes below .72 and the dollar show is over. The dollar will plummet after the realization that the Fed will never be able to issue bonds on the crap they have been stuffed with and kills the idea of the Rentendollar coming out of the Fed’s inventory of SIVs backing massive future bond issues. The game is then over and the beginning of the concept of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, Modernized and Revitalized becomes the tool of choice starts.

Gold is going to $1650 on its way to Alf’s numbers.

Today you have been had by paper gold ONE MORE TIME.

Regards,
Jim