Jim,

I adjusted the chart.

There is good cause to expect silver to move (and lead) here and now, or it could be delayed a little longer. Either way, the acute attention directed towards silver price manipulation becomes a little less important when viewed within the context of the long-term trend.

CIGA Eric

Click chart to enlarge in PDF format

Jim,

• Bullion tends to lead.
• Gold shares follow.
• Gold shares have yet to follow. The window of opportunity to catch up is wide open.
• Gold shares will outperform the stock market.
• The gold shares will have produced better returns than gold at the end of the bull market.

CIGA Eric

Click charts to enlarge in PDF format

Jim,

Deutsche Bank estimates that half of US homeowners will be underwater by 2011.

Below is the DB presentation with the analysis by type of mortgage.

Regards,
CIGA Christopher

Half Of US Homeowners Will Be Underwater By 2011
Henry Blodget
Aug. 11, 2009, 9:47 AM

The reason all this is important is that, if you’re underwater, you’re much more likely to default on your mortgage than if you have some equity.

You’re ESPECIALLY likely to default, moreover, if you’re deeply underwater.

In the last housing bust, house prices in Massachusetts fell about 16% (see chart).  Approximately 7% of borrowers who were underwater defaulted.

7% isn’t that bad, but for four reasons, DB’s Karen Weaver thinks the impact will be much worse this time around:

More…

CIGA Christopher,

Do you really think it is going take until 2011, or truth be known (real sale value under auction) is it already a reality?

Jim

Jim,

I wonder if some of these media people have Mothers and Fathers who are also Brother and Sister…

CIGA Jim

Economy grows in 3Q, signals end of recession
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer

WASHINGTON – The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes. It’s the strongest signal yet that the economy has entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.

Going forward, many analysts expect the pace of the budding recovery to be plodding due to rising unemployment and continuing difficulties by both consumers and businesses to secure loans.

"This welcome milestone is just another step, and we still have a long road to travel until the economy is fully recovered," said Christina Romer, President Barack Obama’s chief economist. "It will take sustained, robust … growth to bring the unemployment rate down substantially. Such a decline in unemployment is, of course, what we are all working to achieve."

More…

CIGA Jim,

Tell this technical definition of skewed figures resulting from government give away programs to Detroit.

Jim

Jim,

It seems like the USA was left out. F-TV is telling us the GDP is booming and the recession is likely over. News must not travel as fast as we first thought.

CIGA BJS

IMF raises growth forecast for Asia
Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:04:20 GMT

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for Asian economies, boosted by stimulus spending and a pickup in global trade.

In its regional economic outlook for Asia and the Pacific region released on Thursday, the IMF said that Asian economies, including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, are expected to grow 2.8 percent this year and 5.8 percent in 2010 — in both cases about 1.5 percentage points higher than previous forecasts published in May.

"Just as the US downturn triggered an outsized fall in Asia’s GDP [gross domestic product] because international trade and finance froze, now their normalization is generating an outsized Asian upturn," the IMF said, adding that the rebound in Asian economic activity has been fastest in the export-dependent Asian economies that were hit most severely at the end of 2008.
More…