Jim,

More and more countries are getting frustrated with the U.S.

U.S. international influence is losing ground very, very quickly.

After Pakistan, Israel, Japan, China, now we have the Arab league. And at a certain point Europe (disagreement on financial regulation and executive bonuses).

The reasons for this frustration are various: economical, financial, geopolitical.

Unless President Obama change radically the way he handles foreign policy (which I doubt) in the next few weeks, I believe we could see a rapid rise in protectionism at all levels, which is the last thing we want to see in such crisis.

Best regards,
CIGA Christopher

Obama Push for Mideast Peace Dealt Setback, Arabs Say (Update1)
By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan and Bill Varner

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration’s effort to end the Middle East conflict has suffered a setback, the Arab League said at the United Nations after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton assured Egyptian leaders of the U.S. commitment.

“He is a good man and his intentions are good, but we are back to square one,” Arab League Ambassador Yahya Mahmassani said of President Barack Obama’s bid during his first year in office to make headway toward Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and a state for Palestinians. “His words have not led to actions so far.”

Clinton returned from five days of crisscrossing the region yesterday, after adding a stop in Cairo to try to ease Arab anger over her statements Oct. 31 in Jerusalem. She came under fire for hailing as “unprecedented” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to restrict, rather than halt, settlement construction in the West Bank.

The outcry from Arab governments overshadowed Clinton’s Mideast tour and came as Arabs pressed at the UN for prosecution of Israeli officials for alleged war crimes during the December- January offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel has said it won’t resume peace talks while facing possible war-crimes charges.

For three days starting at a meeting of Arab leaders in Morocco Nov. 2, Clinton insisted that U.S. policy on Israeli settlements hasn’t changed.

More…

Jim,

Same old same old…

Birth/Death Model

Birth/death model continues on its pace of estimate nontraditional job creation in the face of massive traditional job loss.  For instance, during the period of 2008.01-2008.10 birth/death creation and traditional job lost were 802 and -1800 thousand, respectively.  From 2009.01-2009.10 birth/death creation was 793 thousand jobs.  This number is comparable to the 2008.01-2008.10 period.  Traditional job losses during 2009.01-2009.10 was -4226.  This number is substantially higher than 2008.01-2008.10 and raises questions as to the consistency of the birth/death model.

Average Weekly Insurance Claim (AWIC)

As expected, backing away from recent highs.  I expect this series to roughly trace the illustrated pattern.

Job creation histogram (JCH)

Job destruction continues to outpace labor force decline.  In other words, the real unemployment is rising and much higher than reported.

CIGA Eric

Click charts to enlarge in PDF format

Jim,

They just got $800 billion.

CIGA BJS

Dear BJS,

Wars are not free, especially two, not counting black opts.

Regards,
Jim

Pentagon Expected to Request More War Funding
By ELISABETH BUMILLER
Published: November 4, 2009

WASHINGTON — The nation’s top military officer said Wednesday that he expected the Pentagon to ask Congress in the next few months for emergency financing to support the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, even though President Obama has pledged to end the Bush administration practice of paying for the conflicts with so-called supplemental funds that are outside the normal Defense Department budget.

The financing would be on top of the $130 billion that Congress authorized for the wars just last month.

The military officer, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, did not say how much additional money would be needed, but one figure in circulation within the Pentagon and among outside defense budget analysts is $50 billion.

More…