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With the assistance of a good friend and contributor to JSMineset, Mr. Peter Carlin, Jim has co-authored a book on everything you need to know about Gold.

If you have ordered the book and not yet received it, please email sales@apocketbookofgold.com. We are switching our shipping provider after a number of slow deliveries. Also, please note Compendium orders do not go through the same shipping company.

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Synopsis:

“A Pocketbook of Gold gives you, in one easy handbook, the reasons why you should own Gold, the timing of when you should own Gold, and the types of Gold you should (and shouldn’t!) own. A Pocketbook of Gold also explains the true role of Gold in every individual’s financial planning as well as Gold’s place in the world monetary system. It is an all-in-one Pocketbook that answers your questions and guides you through the world of Gold as a personal form of investment and financial insurance in today’s increasingly uncertain financial outlook. A Pocketbook of Gold is a survival manual for monetary mayhem.”

As Martin Armstrong says herein, what is coming is more sinister and less understood than the 1929 economic model.

The fact is it is coming without any doubt. Gold is the only insurance against this insidious currency driven event.

The three illustrations below Armstrong`s article are in fact not cartoons. These are teaching illustrations of the aforementioned insidious event on the horizon which is coming extremely fast. I estimate one out of a million people understand the implications.

Click any of the first three images below to open Armstrong’s latest in PDF format

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**NEW** Compendium Version 3 ($80 USD):

Included in this two DVD set is a DVD Rom (accessible by computer DVD drive only) that is a searchable database of nearly two thousand articles over the last two years from Jim Sinclair, Trader Dan, Monty Guild and a collection of other JSMineset contributors. This is one of the largest collections of articles related to the Gold market available today on DVD and includes all charts we have posted over the last year and a half.

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Compendium Version 2 includes all articles posted from December 2005 to the end of October 2008. All articles are categorized and presented in HTML format and are PC and Mac compatible. Several thousand articles are again included in this archive disc which makes up literally thousands of pages of market commentary from Jim himself. Compendium Version 2 also includes an hour long DVD video commentary on financial markets by Jim Sinclair. This disc is playable in any DVD player and any computer that supports DVD playback.

Compendium Version 1 ($50 USD):

Compendium Version 1 includes all articles posted from the inception of JSMineset in 2002 to December 2005. It comes packaged as a searchable PDF database and includes several thousand articles on Gold and financial markets. As a bonus, a separate Technical Analysis video disc by Jim Sinclair is included in the package. This video is viewable on a computer only and is both PC and Mac compatible.

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Click charts to enlarge this week’s action in the HUI/Gold Ratio, Gold/Bonds Ratio, Comex Gold and Continuous Front Month Gold with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

Perhaps today might be a good time to review Jim’s words of wisdom about precious metals shares while "sitting tight!"as winter arrives for the U.S dollar and the Gold season heats up.

CIGA “The Gordon”

Evaluation of Precious Metal Shares in Today Marketplace
Posted: Oct 21 2009     By: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

I shared the matrix of categories of gold shares with you because if you understand this concept you will understand the thinking strategies of company management that wish to grow as well as the mind of the short that wishes to profit.

At lunch today with a professional investor we discussed the use of the gold share matrix. It is the mission of the short seller to push a situation down the six categories of companies to profit. It is the mission of the company intent on significant success to move up the line of six categories to the top most position. This is why I have said that it is progress on the ground that is the viable tool for market placement.

If you understand or can get expert input into the reports of companies you can gauge where they will stand on the six basic positions of the matrix and therefore in the marketplace.

You will also see even if Canada is no longer the center of finance for any other than the major producer top half of category number one, old habits die slowly. That means that the Canadian analyst at least reads the materials that have the blessing of a 43-101 geological stamp on it to see what a company is.

Hedge funds and speculative activity elsewhere seem much less discriminating. They may even start to believe in the charts that they themselves made happen.

One of the keys to this is to watch the legal short position in any issue and the release by that issue of 43-101 blessed material in Canada versus the US. Canada actually reads this stuff and understands it. The time honored resource center of the Republic of South Africa, for all intents and purposes, is out of the business on the mining finance side and has never been the wild financial center that North America is and China now is becoming.

So in giving you the matrix of gold share categories, you can begin to place the issues you own in the position that the market presently perceives them to be or to which they have been manipulated to be.

You can watch their on ground progress to determine, if they are moving up and down the scale and therefore be able to predict the direction of price with accuracy. If you can get some help to understand the fuller meanings of the reports you can actually get a degree of directional move in terms of the present market climate.

For instance, 100,000 ounces of mineable on surface gravel is worth (net cash flow terms) as much as 1,000,000 ounces of deep gold mineralization. Borrowing funds to build a new mine that requires an OTC derivative short of gold in place is a faster way to production than earning your way to it, but carries much greater financial risks.

A category three situation wishing to move into upper category two, regardless of being a royalty company or a pure exploration company, must see some property in production with respectable net cash flow ramifications.

So on it goes, up and down the category scale that will equate to market value and acceptance.

To review the basic article defining the gold share evaluation matrix please consider printing this article out and filing it under market evaluation of precious metals shares.

The Shift Between Gold Share Categories
Posted: Oct 19 2009     By: Jim Sinclair

Dear Friends,

There are various categories of gold shares.

1. The most popular are the majors.

The least understood part about them is their serious short of gold derivative problem, and the balance sheet and price of cover implications thereof. No one will deny that they get the most attention because they have the capitalization required and the brand name that invites institutional buying.

Not much attention is being paid to the fact that they have sold their gold years into the future at prices well under $400. Their calculations on their sales price of the short of gold adds in the interest paid to short of physical bullion over the period of the short position into present time calculations as per their risk disclosure filings. Yes, if you sell physical you get paid interest, and if you buy physical on the cuff you pay interest in all the major cash markets. OTC derivative short of gold factors interest, yet to be earned, into the reported sales price going out in time. When they close the transaction before maturity, as is happening now, the debit does not include unearned interest and therefore charges at the real lower sales price. That is why the majors are borrowing their billions. This will limit their gain versus the gold price as it rises.

2. Junior producers are entities that have opened production facilities which are modest or not yet at full capacity. In the main they have the same problem but it is less visible. Recently the trend has been to bury the OTC short of gold derivatives in the loan documentation, but it is still there with somewhat the same effect. What matters is when the loan was made. The more recent it is the higher the short strike price in the OTC derivative and therefore the less the loss the company faces.

3. Exploration and development issues have been the favorite of the mix of all gold share categories for short operations. The gold explorer business is capital intensive, so if the price can be depressed, the short starves the company of its ability to finance. Before you can have production you must pay all the costs of exploration which usually comes from seed capital. In the last five years there has been practically NO seed capital anywhere for gold.

There are other categories and as a company transmutes between categories. In this unprecedented gold bull market price adjustments should occur with category transmutation of gold entities as they climb the ladder of success.

There is a separate group known as Senior and Junior Gold Royalty companies that will generally outperform as hyperinflation that impacts mining costs occurs. This outperformance should be a product of the cost of production falling upon the royalty partner, not the royalty holder whose participation is an amount of the gross production.

There is the exploration company that begins production and therefore moves up the scale toward the category of junior producer. Usually this is accompanied by improvement in price as many investment entities will not buy non-producing exploration companies.

There is the exploration company that has success and will be evaluated by the quality of its success and deal making. Historically success and deal making for such a company increases interest in the company.

It has been almost 30 years since any meaningful segment of the general marketplace has taken an interest in gold shares. Most mineral underwriters have moved away from all but the Major Producer category. When was the last time you saw any known, respected mineral underwriter working for companies in the bottom half of the Junior Producer or any Gold Exploration entities?

The only money available to the exploration Gold Exploration entities has been PIPEs which when participated in were the start of the company’s death spiral.

At the beginning of a gold bull market it is gold itself, then Major Producers that perform.

As gold makes its way past $1000 to $1650 and beyond, the order up to now has been Major Producers and the top half of Junior Producers benefitting with while the short attacked the bottom half of Junior Producers and all of Gold Exploration entities. Watch closely now as a shift takes place.

No short of any viable gold share can be happy this evening even though across the board they are still short and in some cases still sitting on the price.

You might have noticed recently in the heavily shorted gold situations in the bottom half of the Junior Producers and many of the viable Gold Exploration entities that there was an at the close and after close attempt to destroy prices when in some instances million of shares were sold and bought. This occurred in some cases on volumes 18 times larger (volume on the day) than the previous norm. Exchange short figures indicate that these were long buys and only minimal short covering.

The leverage is always on the bottom side of the category scale, so I anticipate that the bottom half of Junior Producers and the viable companies in Gold Exploration entities to outperform the top half of Junior Producers and Major Producers as the price of gold continues higher in late 2009 and 2010.

History tells us this is how it has always happened, and I believe it will again.

That is called leverage coming out higher gold prices, high in ground values, higher profits in the start up mining and in many cases much less shares outstanding than in the Major Producers and the top half of Junior Producers.

Gold shares presently in the more leveraged categories have practically no participation compared to other hard asset equities such as energy thanks to the action of the shorts.

In general it is more than likely the wrong time for a long suffering long to throw in the towel, but many are and will.

That is also the way it happens and explains the deluge of questions coming in today about the more leveraged gold shares.

Respectfully, 
Jim

Link to original article…

Dear CIGAs,

In support of the hyperinflation thesis outlined by the three teaching illustrations:

Under a situation from the European view in 1931, the only thing to survive was tangible assets. This is not merely gold, but shares in corporations with tangible assets. Velocity is always the key for as it declines due to people then hoarding money, you get deflation. When people are afraid money will become worthless (paper of debased coinage) they spend it faster before it depreciates and that creates hyperinflation. It all depends where confidence stands – with government or within the private sector. We are headed into the later.

Martin Armstrong.
“Staring into the Abyss”
July 31st 2010

Root causes of hyperinflation
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive and rapid increase in the amount of money, which is not supported by growth in the output of goods and services. This results in an imbalance between the supply and demand for the money (including currency and bank deposits), accompanied by a complete loss of confidence in the money, similar to a bank run. Enactment of legal tender laws and price controls to prevent discounting the value of paper money relative to gold, silver, hard currency, or commodities, fails to force acceptance of a paper money which lacks intrinsic value. If the entity responsible for printing a currency promotes excessive money printing, with other factors contributing a reinforcing effect, hyperinflation usually continues. Often the body responsible for printing the currency cannot physically print paper currency faster than the rate at which it is devaluing, thus neutralizing their attempts to stimulate the economy.[7][dead link]

Hyperinflation is generally associated with paper money because this can easily be used to increase the money supply: add more zeros to the plates and print, or even stamp old notes with new numbers. Historically there have been numerous episodes of hyperinflation in various countries, followed by a return to "hard money". Older economies would revert to hard currency and barter when the circulating medium became excessively devalued, generally following a "run" on the store of value.

Hyperinflation effectively wipes out the purchasing power of private and public savings, distorts the economy in favor of extreme consumption and hoarding of real assets, causes the monetary base, whether specie or hard currency, to flee the country, and makes the afflicted area anathema to investment. Hyperinflation is met with drastic remedies, such as imposing the shock therapy of slashing government expenditures or altering the currency basis. An example of the latter occurred in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 2005, when the central bank was only allowed to print as much money as it had in foreign currency reserves. Another example was the dollarization in Ecuador, initiated in September 2000 in response to a massive 75% loss of value of the Sucre currency in early January 2000. Dollarization is the use of a foreign currency (not necessarily the U.S. dollar) as a national unit of currency.

The aftermath of hyperinflation is equally complex. As hyperinflation has always been a traumatic experience for the area which suffers it, the next policy regime almost always enacts policies to prevent its recurrence. Often this means making the central bank very aggressive about maintaining price stability, as was the case with the German Bundesbank, or moving to some hard basis of currency such as a currency board. Many governments have enacted extremely stiff wage and price controls in the wake of hyperinflation, which is, in effect, a form of forced savings, but does not prevent further inflating of the money supply by its central bank, and always leads to widespread shortages of consumer goods if the controls are rigidly enforced.

A 500 billion Yugoslav dinar banknote circa 1993, the largest nominal value ever officially printed in Yugoslavia, the final result of hyperinflation. Photo courtesy of National Bank of Serbia (www.nbs.rs)

As it allows a government to devalue their spending and displace (or avoid) a tax increase, governments have sometimes resorted to excessively loose monetary policy to meet their expenses. Inflation is considered by some another tax on citizens but less overt and is therefore harder to understand by ordinary citizens. Inflation can obscure quantitative assessments of the true cost of living, as published price indices only look at data in retrospect, so may increase only months or years later. Monetary inflation can become hyperinflation if monetary authorities fail to fund increasing government expenses from taxes, government debt, cost cutting, or by other means, because:

(1) during the time between recording or levying taxable transactions and collecting the taxes due, the value of the taxes collected falls in real value to a small fraction of the original taxes receivable;

(2) government debt issues fail to find buyers except at very deep discounts

Theories of hyperinflation generally look for a relationship between seigniorage and the inflation tax. In both Cagan’s model and the neo-classical models, a crucial point is when the increase in money supply or the drop in basic money stock makes it impossible for a government to improve its financial position. Thus when fiat money is printed, government obligations that are not denominated in money increase in cost by more than the value of the money created.

From this, it might be wondered why any rational government would engage in actions that cause or continue hyperinflation. One reason for such actions is that often the alternative to hyperinflation is either depression or military defeat. The root cause is a matter of more dispute. In both classical economics and monetarism, it is always the result of the monetary authority irresponsibly borrowing money to pay all its expenses. These models focus on the unrestrained seigniorage of the monetary authority, and the gains from the inflation tax. In Neoliberalism, hyperinflation is considered to be the result of a crisis of confidence. The monetary base of the country flees, producing widespread fear that individuals will not be able to convert local currency to some more transportable form, such as gold or an internationally recognized hard currency. This is a quantity theory of hyperinflation.[citation needed]

In neo-classical economic theory, hyperinflation is rooted in a deterioration of the monetary base, that is the confidence that there is a store of value which the currency will be able to command later. In this model, the perceived risk of holding currency rises dramatically, and sellers demand increasingly high premiums to accept the currency. This in turn leads to a greater fear that the currency will collapse, causing even higher premiums. One example of this is during periods of warfare, civil war, or intense internal conflict of other kinds: governments need to do whatever is necessary to continue fighting, since the alternative is defeat. Expenses cannot be cut significantly since the main outlay is armaments. Further, a civil war may make it difficult to raise taxes or to collect existing taxes. While in peacetime the deficit is financed by selling bonds, during a war it is typically difficult and expensive to borrow, especially if the war is going poorly for the government in question. The banking authorities, whether central or not, "monetize" the deficit, printing money to pay for the government’s efforts to survive. The hyperinflation under the Chinese Nationalists from 1939-1945 is a classic example of a government printing money to pay civil war costs. By the end, currency was flown in over the Himalaya, and then old currency was flown out to be destroyed.

Hyperinflation is regarded as a complex phenomenon and one explanation may not be applicable to all cases. However, in both of these models, whether loss of confidence comes first, or central bank seigniorage, the other phase is ignited. In the case of rapid expansion of the money supply, prices rise rapidly in response to the increased supply of money relative to the supply of goods and services, and in the case of loss of confidence, the monetary authority responds to the risk premiums it has to pay by "running the printing presses."

In the United States of America, hyperinflation was seen during the Revolutionary War and during the Civil War, especially on the Confederate side. Many other cases of extreme social conflict encouraging hyperinflation can be seen, as in Germany after World War I, Hungary at the end of World War II and in Yugoslavia in the late 1980s just before break up of the country.

Less commonly, inflation may occur when there is debasement of the coinage — wherein coins are consistently shaved of some of their silver and gold, increasing the circulating medium and reducing the value of the currency. The "shaved" specie is then often restruck into coins with lower weight of gold or silver. Historical examples include Ancient Rome, China during the Song Dynasty, and the United States beginning in 1933. When "token" coins begin circulating, it is possible for the minting authority to engage in fiat creation of currency.

www.wikipedia.com

The following is the story of currency induced cost push hyperinflation, represented in three picture chapters.

Dear CIGAs,

If the past three years has taught us anything about markets, it is that they will do what they are set up to do. OTC Derivatives, financial Ponzi schemes (Madoff etc) and gyrating Fed policy are but a few of the machinations determined by the new market Fundamentals… the Fundamentals of government policy.

The political and legislative environment creates new Fundamentals that economic realities were supposed to. As government becomes more self-indebted, and politically captured by special interests, the markets reflect these political realities instead of the economic fundamentals they should.

None of this is news. It has been going on for years. But it is not as benign as it used to be. At the outset its just favouritism: a (usually no-bid) government contract is awarded and a company share price roars on the back of it. Legislative tweaking portends winners and losers. But then things get out of hand.

An early signal was found not only in the insanity of the mortgage backed securities markets and their attendant derivatives, but was also evident in the energy industry. Nobody in their right mind believes that fundamentals had the slightest thing to do with crude oil’s move from 2006 to 2008 – but the shrill cry of “Peak Oil” (Hat Tip Media) sure did help. (Where is it now?) Far more likely is that a couple of market participants decided to clear some competition from the market by running it to ridiculous levels, and make a large amount of money along the way… and enlisted the Media’s help. A natural bull market presented a great opportunity to push the market to unnatural levels and then drop it like a stone. Fundamentals had no role. Not even the first Gulf War when the borders of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia fell, produced a similar event in terms of scale, though the market was overrun with fear. Even before the Algos started ripping markets up and down for fun and profit the game was on.

The West Coast electricity market did a similar thing – by creating unscheduled maintenance that somebody had (personally) “scheduled”. $40 million+ people got their eyes gouged out for months on end, but it sure was fun for someone. A similar situation occurred (several times) in the German power market around the turn of the millenium. An American utility or marketer would simply buy every KwH in sight, along the curve, bar none, in a one or two hour space of time, until people who needed the physical power position to meet actual customer demand were forced to follow them, whereupon the relentless buyer would line up every bid in the market and try and unload everything in one shot. Many times it worked. But the US utility industry blew itself up in fraud, and the main German companies refused to trade with them after a while. Deregulation had happened – but the fall back for the near-monopoly German utilities was to say, “I don’t like you as a credit risk. So I can only trade in very, very small size with you.” The gamers were forced out. They killed their own game in the rush for personal glory.

The charade of options expiry in the Gold market is similar. Get the market up, knowing that call buyers are the public and liked to go naked, and the put buyers are usually market makers trying to butterfly their position and get short the at-the-money strike in expiry. Just before expiry the market is whipsawed down. The public goes out worthless on the call side and the market makers (volume traders) get expired near or at their long strike (i.e. max. loss) and are forced out. Next time around – spreads are wider. It’s an attractive strategy if you can control the underlying for a few hours at the right time of the month. If you can’t – tough luck. Only a fool would trade in such a game. People should roll out weeks before expiry – but the public never does. They hang right on in there every time because the market gets so close to going in the money. (Like the Bbanks aren’t aware of this psychology!). The professionals have a name for these people: They’re called Screen Jockeys… and in case you didn’t know – it’s a term of derision.

A similar situation now exists in that bastion of public interest – the stock market. Trading is simply impossible. Stop-losses can’t be held as orders because they will be used against anyone with a position. As related in M. Lewis’ latest book, the Chinese Walls that supposedly exist in the multiple platforms that trade a single stock should be properly considered as “Bullshit”. Charts are painted to flush people out. What passes for a market is now just a serious of raids up and down the flagpole to shake the hell out of its minor participants. If you aren’t equipped to play “chase the algos” (entry ticket c. $40 million for the technology and servers), your money will simply be taken. The market has for hundreds of years taken money from weak hands, but now anyone without a first class algo can be considered and proven as weak. Fundamental analysis will not help the small trader. It’s simply pointless to participate. Instead of tree-shaking… now the whole damn forest is being shaken. As explained in the book “A Pocketbook of Gold”, any individual with the slightest amount of margin will be destroyed by the hyper-over-leveraged banks that don’t have to mark to market, never have a margin call, and have a government guaranteed, taxpayer funded bailout. These are the NEW fundamentals. You want to participate on the other side of this, so call “trade”? If you do, you need serious help. Do you want to play with the take-down artists, the chart painters and algo-drive market-bashers? (To Mr Sinclair’s “haters” of the past fortnight please recall his relentlessly iterated warning to abandon all Gold trading and margin at $548 per ounce, and hold the core as insurance only.)

The result is that retail has had it with the so-called “market”. Outflows are increasing steadily, while liquidity swamps financial institutions unwilling to do anything other than sit on the liquidity. The bail-out looks like a bail-in. Only idiots like the zero-return in a decade (and a lot less if properly numerated against Gold) pension funds are left. The suckers have woken up and are refusing to play. Computer driven markets go from awash with liquidity to zero liquidity and back again in seconds. It’s enough to make a schizophrenic look balanced. Risk is fully on, then fully off, then fully on again several times in a given day, soon to be in a given hour, minute, second, mille and then micro-second. Trade if you have a death wish only. As the public exits, the algos will now attack each other in a macabre pas de deux of death dance.

Government, of course, is playing its part too in the death of the markets by destroying the value of fundamental analysis. The capitulation of FASB to a government/Fed dictated policy of suspending the assessment of fair value has, as its corollary, the suspension of even the possibility that ‘fair value’ can still, in fact BE determined. Since the government now determines market outcomes, reading Maoist “Wall Posters” is now all one has. (“If one knows the nuances, the walls tell all” was the nod for Deng Xio Peng’s political destruction. This is what we have been reduced to.) As if analysing Greenspan’s FedSpeak wasn’t enough to live through, we now must be scanning the horizon all day for the QE II, instead of analysing a company’s worth and prospects. Resistance may be futile, but participation is now idiocy. Money supply is viciously ramped up and then completely shut-off, at a whim, and with few but opaque methods for observation. When people are buying the stock market only because they envision a Bernanke money-printing induced melt-up, it’s time to leave. That is no reason to be in the marketplace, it is a reason to avoid it.

Previous market participants are sick of trying to decide the level of deceit in Government statistics. No one can anticipate whimsical “on the hoof” policy (like occupying Iraq), so everyone is fearful of investing. Money is going to the mattress like a Spaniard living under Franco. Germans and other Europeans are rushing into the Swiss Franc in outright fear of what politicians might do next. The level of trust from the investing public has never been lower. Government won’t let Fundamentals play out, just like they refused to take a recession ten years ago. The Fed can trump all fundamentals until, of course, they can’t any longer, and they blow up everyone including themselves (i.e. sovereign default). When proper valuation is suspended for as long as possible and seemingly, hopefully, forever, one would be advised to spend their time building a nuclear resistant financial bunker, preferably lined with Gold. It could give a whole new meaning to the old adage that the “Fundamentals always win in the end”. In the new intonation, the emphasis is on the word “end”. An “end” that seems to be in the process of being succinctly arranged.

In the search for absent fundamental indicators, “Shadow Stats” became preferred, but that only detracts from confidence. It does nothing to enhance it. Mr. Williams does not sit at the Fed or in Government. Most likely, it will be QE to infinity, because the disastrous outcome of a Treasury market implosion could be even more devastating than perpetuating a depression. QE is a government played trump card that destroys Fundamental analysis by moving the pricing numerator. Desperation is palpable. It’s why the Government is actively destroying any attempt at fundamental analysis. The sustaining of the smoke and mirrors game demands it. If Government continues to spend, they eventually go bust from debt. If they head down the austerity path, you’ll never have enough GDP to SERVICE the debt. They’re cornered. Devaluation de facto or de jure (i.e. default) is the only possible outcome short of waiting for inevitable systemic collapse along with the hyper-inflation which will give you about as much warning as a Tsunami on your visible horizon. As Mr. Sinclair has related, “Gold is financial High Ground, when a Global Tsunami hits.” Prepare accordingly.

CIGA Pedro